Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 80851.024212 85349.116297 89844.729056 94671.767449 99704.678807 104794.238598 110326.801608
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 73947.724805 80874.355354 87989.514498 95834.378367 104230.698500 112937.382942 122637.955261
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 68013.981405 76521.524814 85453.112097 95507.893937 106490.437818 118100.634447 131280.566923
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 64658.816623 74470.228556 84956.921089 96964.387576 110296.773278 124610.232042 141102.096000
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 61597.390004 72426.581678 84184.898737 97849.135515 113238.108460 129979.935841 149515.835662
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 58483.364597 70084.340567 82863.606591 97915.371563 115085.705845 133988.862684 156297.490337
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 55628.316175 67852.133308 81498.691062 97772.318763 116555.576323 137459.303675 162382.525848
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 54230.100017 67194.454650 81840.123539 99496.764760 120086.774027 143218.140387 171042.996721
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 52967.393235 66606.350262 82185.954774 101160.436603 123498.990478 148813.859992 179514.401370
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 51319.418225 65472.434866 81814.944029 101915.722538 125798.780568 153090.961321 186448.564841
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 49332.802989 63843.111859 80777.752122 101809.279491 127023.582966 156072.064661 191845.511241
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 47767.550259 62656.579955 80208.492422 102205.087388 128798.182851 159667.226044 197949.468742
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 46036.364501 61229.769752 79325.975645 102215.689586 130125.316709 162771.292607 203544.061497
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 45061.010772 60704.316874 79513.692545 103507.985374 132992.488069 167720.888541 211372.449083
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 43340.895448 59180.214690 78415.922576 103172.775810 133841.622616 170226.495656 216263.664730
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 42642.327822 58919.911048 78860.947772 104724.825285 136991.044263 175510.597663 224527.558250
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 41702.224427 58311.363157 78837.343286 105666.468184 139371.948329 179859.657467 231672.830959
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 40415.306278 57208.495836 78149.026822 105737.041534 140643.768612 182838.780358 237146.188520
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 39097.784208 56021.713019 77313.920375 105584.917296 141607.503783 185420.569400 242126.421287
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 38723.711169 56062.747739 78042.346477 107418.869639 145071.597980 191104.762957 250963.185744
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 38344.559289 56078.680502 78725.253469 109187.820705 148456.694614 196706.510393 259731.080331
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 37578.610941 55548.215981 78673.955268 109990.785908 150603.128287 200764.590643 266594.388865
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 36470.389308 54520.243399 77939.343917 109877.627825 151555.633198 203313.835402 271571.290775